FG horses have won 15 graded stakes races around the continent in the past three months or so. Check out the full... http://fb.me/ANUrWEHB on Jun 30, 2010
Last weekend saw two more graded stakes winners that wintered at Fair Grounds--Grand Adventure in the Grade II... http://fb.me/DKArCihZ on Jun 28, 2010
REMINDER --- Tastings at the Track will be starting in 3 hours !!! Come sample the fine wines of Oregon and... http://fb.me/DqH6LvQ3 on Jun 23, 2010
The Brisnet Prime Power rating, which can be found in the Ultimate Past Performances and Race Summary, has proved its worth over a long period of time. The ratings consistently outperform the final odds and results of a spot check of this weekend bore this out.
Not including races that were taken off the turf and maidens in which there were three or more first-time starters, there were 53 races run at Calder, Arlington and Churchill on Saturday and Sunday. In these 53 races 19 (36 percent) were won by favorites. The top ranked Prime Power horses narrowly out performed the public's pick by winning 20 (38 percent) of the 53 races. Over time however, the Prime Power ratings have proved more consistent on the dirt and of the 41 races run on the main track at the three locations over the weekend 18 (an impressive 44 percent) were won by the top ranked Prime Power horse. This compared with 14 of the 41 (34 percent) that were won by favorites. A $2 win bet on the top ranked Prime Power runner in the 41 dirt races would have produced a return of $94.60 for a stake of $82 -- a profit of $12.60 or 15 percent.
While a 15 percent profit by simply wagering on the top ranked Prime Power horse is impressive, being selective produced even more dramatic results. Indeed, of the 41 races there were 20 horses that were the clear top ranked on the Prime Power by at least three points. Of these 20 no less than 12 (60 percent) were winners. A $2 wager on the 20 produced a return of $62.60 for the $40 wagered -- a profit of $22.60, or a very strong 57 percent.
Over a period of time it has been found that Prime Power horses that are ranked at least 10 points clear of the rest of the field score 55 percent of the time. Over the weekend at Calder, Churchill and Arlington there were just two runners that met this criteria. Lifeinthetropics who romped home in the 4th race at Calder on Saturday and the easy winner of Sunday's nighcap at Churchill, Gold Brew.
While Gold Brew was also the public's choice and returned $4.40, this race illustrated the strength of the Prime Power ratings and their usefulness in exotic wagering. Indeed, not only did the Prime Power predict the winner but also the exacta, the trifecta and the superfecta -- cold !
Tim Holland 6-8-09.
