Daily Handicapping

Welcome back, everybody! Happy Fair Grounds opening day, and also Happy Breeders' Cup Weekend. We kick off the meet with a good opportunity to build up the betting fund with a big field of maiden claiming two year old fillies, most of which are dropping out of MSW company. #10 NORTHERN GHOST comes into today's race with only one start, a 40k maiden claimer at PID, where she finished 7th, but that was after being in contention behind the early leaders before just tiring late. And also note that the winner drew off by 10 lengths. She showed some potential that day and now she adds the blinkers. #1 MY PLEASURE ZONE has also only had one previous start but hers was a much tougher MSW at AP, on a yielding turf course, where she had to face the much the best and heavily favored Dreaming of Josephine. She never really got into it that day as the longest shot on the board but may improve today on the class drop and on dirt. #9 BLACKBERRY KISSES has been running in maiden claimers at EVD, but with her 3rd and 2nd place finishes to show for her two starts, she has the best actual race record in this field.

Off of a win and two 2nds, #7 SCORE TO SETTLE is in solid form and looks like one of the prime contenders especially off that last race where he just missed after a wide trip from post 11. #9 BOUNDARY ZONE looks for two in a row after winning his last, a 5k maiden claimer at EVD back in August. He’s only showing one work, which is a concern, but he’d been in decent form coming into that last race, he likes to be part of the early pace, and he gets to cut back in distance today. #3 COLE’S MUSIC ran evenly in the same race that SCORE TO SETTLE exits. He had a nice near bullet work on October 28th, and he’s hasn’t ever really run a bad race, never finishing worse than 5th while facing large fields.

#12 GOOD HUMAN BEAN doesn’t get the greatest post position but brings the breeding here being out of the dam X Strawdinair who is also the dam of the stakes winning brothers Mean Butterbean and Brother Bean. Also note that in finishing 2nd in her debut, she defeated Envoys Running who won her next start. #10 ROCK ‘TIL DAWN is one of four first time starters in this full field. She is by Rock Slide who wins with 15% of his first time starters and she races for trainer Mike Stidham who regularly wins with 20% of his first time starters. #3 SPEEDACIOUS was favored in her debut but was beaten by the aforementioned Envoys Running.

You can draw a line right through that last running line for #2 DR. ALEX. He obviously hated the dirt and now gets back on his preferred surface of turf. He has consistently run solid races over the EVD and LAD grass courses and turned in some performances that are good enough to win here, if he takes to the FG grass also. #8 BELFAST turned a corner when placed on the turf for the first time back in April. Since then he has only been worse than 3rd one time, and that was a 4th place finish. Today he is seeking his fourth straight win as he takes yet another step up in class after dominating his last two fields of opponents, drawing off by four lengths each time. #7 ELUSIVE COMMANDER falls into the same category as DR. ALEX in that you can toss his last two sub-par performances over the main track and expect him to improve today as he gets back on the grass surface that he obviously prefers.

In 16 lifetime starts, #3 TEMPO FIVE had only failed to land in the trifecta one time and that was a fourth place finish two starts back where he was only beaten 2 ½ lengths. He is looking for his first dirt win and he may possibly be better on the synthetic surface, but he also has only had two opportunities to try the regular dirt and so far has been able to handle all types of surfaces with a wet track and a turf win to his credit. #2 EARLY RETURN is another solid consistent runner who generally gives a good account of himself and is proven over the FG main course as he was a two time winner here last season #1 BREAK UP has been in nothing but state-bred stakes races since winning the Juvenile here on Champions Day last year at a big fat 68-1. He won his last two, races fresh off of a four month break, and shows up with some solid works including a near bullet on October 7th and a bullet on October 17th.

Longshot time! #4 RED HOT SO AND SO deserves a good long second look. Her last three grass races have been very good with a win in July at 13-1, a 4th in September at 36-1 where she was beaten less than two lengths, and most recently a 15-1 win at LAD in October. She seems inconsistent but just toss the non-grass races since that July win, and she starts looking better and better, especially if she goes off at long odds again. #12 ROSE MEDALLION was the winner in RED HOT SO AND SO’s September race and after that one she went on to win again, this time by almost 5 lengths. The concern with her is the wide post which is actually the widest she’s ever been and marks the first time she’s ever been on the outside. #6 SNOW DELICIOUS races off of a 6 month layoff, but won two over this turf course last season and drops back down to the price she was claimed for last December.

#9 SPARKLING KEAT hasn’t raced in 6 months but he’s run well fresh before and he had a nice strong 5 furlong bullet gate work on October 24th in preparation for today’s race so he does appear ready. #3 MR. SKIE’S SPIRIT is 1 for 1 after a dominating debut win in August over an EVD turf course that was rated soft. Interesting place for him to debut, but now he gets on the dirt and should also like the added distance going from that 5 furlong grass race to 6 furlongs today. #8 WHERE’S CAIN won a MSW in his debut run here last November and has been working well as he gets ready to make his first start in over three months.

#9 MUCH OBLIGED is the big marquee name in here, and she does look formidable if she runs her race, but how about #6 CATEGORY SEVEN? She got so good here last season and then was able to carry that momentum over to Lone Star, and then LAD, and then EVD, and now she’s back. Her last race was in September and it appears she got a month off before returning to training in October, so she should be nice and fresh not to mention that in her 11 starts this year she has not one time been worse than second. MUCH OBLIGED has a perfect 2-2 record over the FG turf and has spent a good deal of time in graded stakes company. She has only had three spread out starts this year, and although she won two of them neither of those was a stake and in getting both wins she only faced fields of 6. If she fires her best shot she should win handily, but she may be beatable and she will likely be even lower than her 8/5 ML. #5 LOVE TO TELL can never be left out. She was a multiple stakes winner here last season then she went on to run 3rd in a G3 at Lone Star and most recently she finished a game 2nd in the Claiming Crown Tiara at Canterbury Park, battling Mizzcan’tbewrong, who is also a multiple stakes winner.

#9 NOB HILL BANDIT could run up the track again like he did in his debut, but he could also improve at a price as he drops in class today. His dam is the stakes placed Nob Hill Native who has produced three stakes winners including Nob Hill Deelite who won four LA Champions Day races at LAD including the Juvenile in 2005. #7 OH BABY BABY should appreciate the cut back in distance from 7 furlongs to 6 today after setting the pace in his last only to tire in that final furlong. #1 SAVAGE MAN has a pair of 7th place finishes to show for his two lifetime starts but today drops in class as he race with blinkers for the 2nd time.